Is it possible BluRay will NOT win?

[BCA]

HD-DVD will come back in a few years and will overtake blu-ray because it will be cheaper.

[PirateThom]

Originally Posted by Walshie

HD-DVD will come back in a few years and will overtake blu-ray because it will be cheaper.

Of course, HD DVD isn't out yet as long as it still has Warner releasing titles later than Blu-ray and firesale players advertised as DVD upscalers, it can't possibly die.

[chedabob]

Originally Posted by PirateThom

Of course, HD DVD isn't out yet as long as it still has Warner releasing titles later than Blu-ray and firesale players advertised as DVD upscalers, it can't possibly die.

Protip: That was sarcasm.

[PirateThom]

Originally Posted by chedabob

Protip: That was sarcasm.

Protip: So was that.

[chedabob]

SARCASM AGAINST SARCASM?!?!?! HeAD ASPLODE

[Darth Daver]

Originally Posted by Icemage

Blu-ray has a lot of momentum right now. We'll see how things go in the next year or two, but it has two big things going for it.

(1) Everyone in the commercial industry wants it. Seriously.

Brick and mortar stores know their days are numbered if they don't find something to prop up the optical disc DVD sales that have been fading for the past 14 or so months now.

The movie studios know there's only so many "remastered" DVD copies of every movie on the planet that you want to buy. But hey, stick a new "Blu-ray" name on it, provide a sharper image, and get some more control over who copies it? Now they're interested.

I'm sure Netflix and Blockbuster are now happy to find a new medium that can compete realistically with video on demand downloads. The amount of data stored on a Blu-ray disc is too large to comfortably transmit over the Internet with anything but the most rock solid of fiber optic connections these days, and that doesn't look like it will change any time soon for the vast majority of people in the world.

(2) HDTV

HDTVs are the hottest consumer item on the planet. Hotter than iPods. They can't sell enough of the blasted things. And what better to go with your HDTV than an HD player that will make the most of it? And bonus - it plays your DVDs too!

---

You won't see it today or tomorrow, and you'll probably never directly notice it, but over the next year or so and beyond, assuming that they can keep the Blu-ray momentum going, you'll see a concerted marketing push from everyone involved to suggest to you that Blu-ray is "better than DVD". And once that happens, some weird things might start happening.

- Blu-ray editions, with more space available, might start getting more extra features than their DVD counterparts (right now it's 50/50 coin flip which version is more feature-rich depending on the movie studio).

- Like we're seeing right now with Blu-ray releases versus HD DVD, there may come a day when Blu-ray releases end up hitting the market first, before the DVDs.

- Just as vinyl records and VHS tapes eventually got phased out, we may start seeing DVD get phased out at some point. The compact disc just took its first wound in this fashion; on Jan. 29, musician Neil Young announced that his new project would not be released on CD, but only on Blu-ray and DVD.

Neil Young : ‘Archives’ on DVD and Blu-ray - not CD - this fall

Will any/all of these things happen? Maybe. Maybe not. We'll have to wait and see how well the manufacturers, studios, and retailers get their act together in brainwashing the masses into thinking "new is better".

Great post Icemage, you've even started to convince me that Blu-ray will be a dominant format. Although the problem I see is that there are quite a lot of new formats jsut around the corner. Blu-ray will have to get 50%adoption really quick otherwise people might just skip the format and go from DVD to <insert next format>

The thing that Blu-ray has to do now is get it's profile 2.0 players out on the market and really push the advantages of the format over DVD. At the moment I don't see the masses adopting the format very soon.

I hope Blockbuster dies, it's a horrible business.

A brand new tape was better than vinyl but tapes wore out way too quick. Vinyl could produce better sound depending on the record player.

[Romanc]

Originally Posted by chedabob

Vinyl -> Tape: Better quality, smaller, longer recordings, could master your own copies
Tape -> CD: Smaller, even better quality, even longer recordings, more durable

VHS -> Dvd: Vastly improved picture quality, size, special features, subtitles, surround sound, more durable

DVD -> Bluray: Higher resolution.

Noticing a trend here?

I need to examine this one a bit closer, as this doesn't seem right...

Vinyl vs Tape: Vinyl is truly analogue sound only limited by the equipment used to play it, isn't it? Tape had cutoff in both ends of the spectrum IIRC. The dolby noise reduction on tapes also reduced the audio quality. Both formats are susceptible to wear and tear. Tape came, and stayed, not because of technical or sonic superiority but because of its application; affordable mastering of audio recordings in a smaller package (I surmise you are referring to the C-30, C60, C-90 aso?)

Tape vs CD: This I must divide in two as it was never a contender with the CD as a audio-playing format but as a recording format. As to audio capability, it was fighting against vinyl. And once again, convenience wins out; as CD did not produce better sound than the vinyl, after all it is only bitsampling the analog sound. What they do offer is durability (not as everlasting as they claimed, but still...), a smaller package, easier production aso. As a recorder it has clear advantages over tape; bitsampling offers better reproduction than tape and in the case of CD to CD the copies are identical.

VHS vs DVD: No issues here. I totally agree with your assessment. After all VHS is deficient in most areas, lousy picture and sound quality, loads of durability issues. I could go on for ever - it was a lousy format.

DVD vs Blu-Ray; You say only higher resolution. How about vastly improved picture quality, like you stated for the same resolution VHS/DVD transition? Blu-Ray (and HD-DVD) improves immensely over an upscaled DVD. And the step up in sound is noticeable to 7.1 linear PCM is way better than the old Dolby Digital or DTS 5.1.

tl;dr No, I am not noticing a trend at all....

[rbbdrooger]

Most of my friends and family have an HDTV or plan on buying one this year. And all of them want an HD-player. There's only one choise left: blu-ray. I think you'll see a significant rise in sales of blu-ray players and discs in the next two years. Consumers have been putting off untill there's a clear winner, especially the ones who've been using their betamax or video2000 as paper-weights.

[Xisiqomelir]

It's all over, throw your PS3s out the window.

[boffo]

Originally Posted by Xisiqomelir

It's all over, throw your PS3s out the window.

But I still use it as an upconverting DVD player.